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Simulation of the energy efficiency auction prices in Brazil

Javier L. L. Gonzales, Rodrigo F. Calili, Reinaldo C. Souza, Felipe L. Coelho da Silva

2016/5/20

Abstract

The electricity consumption behavior in Brazil has been extensively investigated over the years due to financial and social problems. In this context, it is important to simulate the energy prices of the energy efficiency auctions in the Brazilian regulated environment. This paper presents an approach to generate samples of auction energy prices in energy efficiency market, using Markov chain Monte Carlo method, through the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. The obtained results show that this approach can be used to generate energy price samples.

Published in: Renewable Energy & Power Quality Journal (RE&PQJ),Vol. 1, Nº. 14
Pages:574-579 Date of Publication: 2016/5/20
ISSN: 2172-038X Date of Current Version:2016/5/4
REF:396-16 Issue Date: May 2016
DOI:10.24084/repqj14.396 Publisher: EA4EPQ

Authors and affiliations

Javier L. L. Gonzales(1,4), Rodrigo F. Calili(1), Reinaldo C. Souza(1,2) Felipe L. Coelho da Silva (2,3)
1. Department of Metrology, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro (PUC Rio). Brasil
2. Department of Electrical Engineering, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro (PUC-Rio). Brasil
3. Department of Mathematics, Federal Rural University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRRJ). Brasil
4. Universidad Peruana Unión. Facultad de Ingeniería y Arquitectura. E.P. Ingeniería Ambiental. Perú

Key words

Energy Efficiency; Energy; Demand-Side Bidding; Monte Carlo Simulation; MCMC.

References

[1] AMERICAN COUNCIL FOR NA ENERGY-EFFICIENT ECONOMICS (ACEEE). Executive Summary, The 2014
International Energy Efficiency Scorecard, July 2014.
[2] R. F. CALILI, “Políticas de Eficiência Energética no Brasil: uma abordagem em um Ambiente Econômico sob incerteza”, in Departamento de Engenharia Elétrica da PUC-Rio, Tese de Doutorado, 2013.
[3] HASTINGS, W. K. Monte Carlo Sampling Methods using Markov Chains and their applications. Biometrika, v. 57, p. 97-109, 1970.
[4] AGÊNCIA NACIONAL DE ENERGIA ELÉTRICA. Efficiency Valuation Organization. Brasilia: ANEEL: v. 1, p. 125, 2012.
[5] E. Bompard, Y. Ma, R. Napoli, G. Abrate, E. Ragazzi, “The impacts of price responsiveness on strategic equilibrium in competitive electricity markets”, in International Journal of Electrical Power & Energy Systems 2007, v. 29, pp. 397-407.
[6] S. M. Ross, Simulation, Academic Press, San Diego, USA (2013).

 
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